The last Masters 1000 tournament of the year is here, and defending champion Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from the event. Will we see a 7th title for Sinner? Can someone else surprise on the indoor hard-court? In the competition’s last year in Bercy, I’m sure the organizers are hoping for an entertaining finale to the long-serving venue.
#1 Sinner’s Quarter:
Seeds: Sinner, Rune, De Minaur, Fritz
The most interesting part of this quarter could be how De Minaur performs. He put himself in range to potentially qualify by making the semi-final in Vienna last week. Currently #9 in the race to Turin, he needs to surpass Andrey Rublev in 8th who he currently trails by just under 200 points. A strong week here could give the Aussie a chance to qualify for his first ATP Finals. To do so, he will have to potentially get through Taylor Fritz in the 3rd round. For Rune, he’ll be looking to build off a strong week in Basel. He could play Bublik or a qualie in round 2 before a potential meeting with Sinner. Jannik Sinner returns to the court fresh off of his triumph at the 6 Kings Slam, and he will have to face either Ben Shelton or a qualifier in the second round. It’s not the easiest for the World number one, especially with Shelton fresh off of a final in Basel. I actually expect this to work against Shelton allowing Sinner to move into the third round. Sinner is too strong on indoor hard-court, especially in terms of relative return strength, to be troubled by the players in this section. On the other side, I think the added incentive will push De Minaur into the QFs. At this point, the H2H for Sinner- De Minaur is 7-0 in favor of the Italian, and these are not the conditions where this result will be any different.
QF Prediction: Sinner defeats De Minaur (2 Sets)
#3 Zverev’s Quarter:
Seeds: Zverev, Musetti, Tsitsipas, Rublev
On the other side of the De Minaur chase is Rublev, who will be trying to make 5th consecutive ATP finals. His results as of recent are not a very encouraging sign to support his inclusion, losing before the final weekend in Basel, Stockholm, and Beijing. He has a match-up with Cerundolo (1-2 H2H) in the second round before a potential meeting with Tsitsipas. Speaking of the Greek, what an awful year it has been for him. He has struggled to string together any momentum. He hasn’t really had any notable wins on indoor hard-court this season. I think there’s a real chance he gets upset yet again even before a match vs Rublev by Borges, who himself is returning from a long absence. The top section of this quarter has far more going on from a form perspective. Starting with unseeded Arthur Fils, who made a semi-finals run in Basel to back up his Tokyo title. The world #20, he will be a difficult task for Lorenzo Musetti in the second round. Musetti is also coming off a semi-finals run in Vienna where he defeated Zverev. He will have to be feeling good about his chances, but I think Fils will get the upper hand in this one. I think his weapons are more dangerous on a hardcourt, and his recent form is enough to make me believe that he’ll bring the level to beat the ever-solid Musetti. For Zverev, it’s tough to make a lot of his results recently, but he’s had some trouble against the top 20 guys in the back half of the year on hard court. That’s enough to dissuade me here, I think Zverev has enough to make it out of this quarter, but if he’s got Fils in the 3rd round, I think he could struggle against the hometown hero. On the bottom, I think one of either Rublev or Tsitsipas gets knocked out early, clearing the path for the other to play in the QF. I’m riding the hot hand here, I think Fils will be riding the momentum into the QFs and can pull off the upset in his motherland. He’s got the tools to compete against Tsitisipas /Rublev, and I think he’ll be more consistent based off of his recent form.
QF Prediction: Fils defeats Tsitsipas (3 Sets)
#4 Medvedev’s Quarter:
Seeds: Medvedev, Tiafoe, Hurkacz, Dimitrov
Grigor is the only one in this group who has a ton to play for. Besides the pride of competing, Grigor is defending runner-up points from last year and is competing to pass Rublev on his way to Turin. He has a fairly manageable draw to be honest, Hurkacz is the main seed standing in his way to the QFs. Hubie has had a tough year with his knee injury/recovery, and he hasn’t played since Tokyo, where he lost to Draper. He already struggles on the return and having this lapse in intensity will not do him any favors. Tiafoe has one of the most difficult draws in the tournament, against Mpetshi Perricard in R1. If he survives that, he potentiallys gets Khachanov then Berrettini/Medvedev. For any player, that would be nightmarish, but for a guy who has struggled this year on indoor hard-court, I’m not sure I see him making it out of R1. At the bottom of this section, Meddy will have either Berrettini or Popyrin. I think he’ll get Berrettini, who he has a 3-0 H2H against. Medvedev isn’t as good on indoor hard-court as outdoor, but he did win this tournament in 2020 and is still one of the 3 best players in the world on HCs. I think we’ll see Grigor and Medvedev in the QF, running back their meeting in the 2nd round of this tournament last year. I think the added motivation for Grigor will end up turning into pressure at this late stage. Medvedev’s serve could be the difference if it’s on. It’s close, but I’m taking Medvedev because he’s been so dominant on HCs against everyone except Sinner/Alcaraz/Djokovic.
QF Prediction: Medvedev defeats Dimitrov (3 Sets)
#2 Alcaraz’s Quarter:
Seeds: Alcaraz, Humbert, Paul, Ruud
I think the bottom half of this quarter is pretty open and shut. Alcaraz has too much firepower, even on his off days, for anyone on the bottom half to challenge him on a court like Bercy. Guys like Humbert and Nakashima don’t have the tools to hit through Alcaraz while maintaining a level of consistency to challenge him from the back of the court. I think Alcaraz makes it to the QFs without dropping a set. On the top half, the seeds, Ruud and Paul, are both trying to secure their place in Turin. Ruud, currently in 7th, has an interesting path to the 3rd round. He has to go through Jordan Thompson, who easily defeated him the last time the two met in Tokyo. I think the added incentive will bring him over the line in this match, but it’s far from a guarantee. Paul will likely have to go through Cobolli, who is talented, but I believe Paul’s consistency will pull him through. Ultimately, we could see a match between Paul and Ruud to partially decide who goes to the ATP Finals. In this situation, I feel like I have more trust in Paul to be consistent in a high leverage moment. He has a title on indoor hard-court this season and he won the last match between the two at Indian Wells this season. That means in the QF, I’ve got Alcaraz vs Paul. Tommy always usually plays well against Carlos but also typically loses. I’ll swing it the other way this time. Carlos hasn’t been as other worldly as usual as he comes off the 6 Kings. He also doesn’t typically finish the season very strong. Of course, if he’s on, then this will be straight up wrong, but the conditions are all there for Paul to pull off another unlikely upset.
QF Prediction: Paul defeats Alcaraz (3 Sets)
Final Weekend Predictions:
As for the final weekend, Sinner and Medvedev are just flat out better players than Fils and Paul. Fils doesn’t have the consistency to play, especially off of Sinner’s backhand wing. I don’t think he’s capable of taking down the tier 1 guys unless he catches them in their worst conditions on their worst day. For Tommy Paul, he’s a guy that likes to will you down from the back of the court with his consistency. The problem is, Medvedev can do exactly that but better. I think Paul can take a set, but I don’t have full confidence in him to take Meddy out. In the final, Sinner has owned Medvedev over the last 12 months bar Wimbledon. At the 6 Kings Slam, he literally had Medvedev questioning his ability to ever beat him because he was so effectively neutralized. Until I see some sign of Medvedev figuring it out, Sinner is my pick in this head-to-head. And with that, it’ll be Sinner’s 7th title of the year incoming.
Margin Call Sports 
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