The two biggest markets in the United States are set to face off against each other in this year’s fall classic. The Yankees-Dodgers matchup is the most-storied battle in October history, and in line with previous matchups, there is no lack of firepower on either of these rosters. With 2 of the 5 highest payrolls, both teams are in contender mode and a loss for either of these teams will mark their seasons as a failure. Here’s who I think has the advantage at each position:
Starting Pitcher:
Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon vs Yoshi Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler
The starting pitching for both teams has been a bit up and down for both teams in these playoffs. The Yankees have thrown Cole and Rodon thrice and now add Nestor back into the mix for Game 1. So far, the Cole/Rodon tandem has an average ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP at 1.34. Cole had an okay first game against the Royals (5 IP, 3 runs, 7 hits) but bounced back with a gem of 7 innings, 1 run ball to send the Yanks to the ALCS. Rodon, similarly has been up and down. Neither were particularly convincing in the ALCS, but they’ve een able to limit the earned run numbers and keep the Yankees in games. We’ll see what role Nestor plays, but the 1-2 right now for the Yankees has been getting it done in unspectacular fashion. As for the Dodgers. They probably have the best starter in this matchup in Yamamoto, coming off of a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP season in 18 starts. His Game 1 start vs the Padres was a nightmarish debut (3.0 IP, 5 ER), but his performances in game 5 vs Padres and game 4 vs the Mets were both strong in critical games. Flaherty revived his career after the trade to the Dodgers ending with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He struggled in game 2 vs the Padres and game 5 vs the Mets, but pitched a gem over 7 scoreless innings in game 2 vs the Mets. For Buehler it’s similiar, 1 bad game and two solid outings. It’s a toss-up for me, but when both teams have fluctuations, you have to go with the numbers accumulated over a large sample size.
Advantage: Dodgers
Bullpen:
Who can remember the panic of Dodger fans heading into Game 4 vs the Padres when Dave Roberts announced it would be a bullpen game? I haven’t heard much after the shutout they pitched. Blake Trenien, Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda and others have all put in incredible postseasons for the Dodgers. In all the losses this postseason sans Game 2 vs the Padres, the Dodgers starters have let them down. The bullpen has been incredible for a unit that many thought was the weakest link of this team. The Yankees bullpen is comprised of lots of guys who other, less competitive teams outcast for cheap. They’ve since turned into one of the stars of the Yankees post-season culminating in a 4 2/3 scoreless closeout to game 5 in the ALCS. Guys like Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle, and Jake Cousins have all contributed in huge ways. Who do I trust more of these guys to win the matchup versus the other team’s superstars? Weaver and Tim Hill are on fire and I still don’t fully trust the Dodger’s staff in such high leverage.
Advantage: Yankees
Catcher:
Austin Wells (.091/.167/.182) vs Will Smith (.158/.289/.316)
Will Smith is one of the best catchers in the game and is coming off another year where he posted a 3.5 WAR. While Wells has been an incredible revelation for this Yankees team as a rookie posting a 2.5 WAR and an OPS of over .700. The problem now is that neither of these guys have been hitting the ball particularly well in the postseason as evidenced by their slash lines. If BABIP is any indication, there is some evidence to suggest that these two have been rather unlucky. But when it comes to October, you either hit or you don’t.
Advantage: Dodgers
First Base:
Anthony Rizzo (.429/.500/.500) vs Freddie Freeman (.219/.242/.219)
Rizzo has hit this postseason when called upon. He’s an upcoming free agent this off season and if he continues his postseason form into the World Series, there could be some suitors for the 35-year-old. But if you look past the recent form, he continued his regression this season. He only posted an OPS of .637 this season with the rest of his advanced and counting stats dropping off as well. Add the broken fingers he’s been dealing with on top of that? Well, I’m probably going to give the H2H to the future HOFer on the other side. Freeman hasn’t been dominant this postseason, and his nagging ankle issue presents issues. But this is a top-of-the-line hitter with big stage experience. Freeman will bounce back and come up big in this series.
Advantage: Dodgers
Second Base:
Gleyber Torres (.297/.400/.432) vs Gavin Lux (.208/.258/.333)
Another potential free agent for the Yankees this off season is Gleyber. Gleyber is what he is at this point. But he’s been hot the second half of the year and continued it into what has been a great individual playoff run. He’s a guy that seems to go in and out of funks. Right now, he’s on. On the other side we have the former top-5 prospect, Gavin Lux. A lot of the tools he projected to have, especially his power, haven’t panned out at the MLB level. He’s played just alright in this postseason, but sometimes you just need a high-floor guy. He provides that, but he won’t give you the potential highs that Gleyber will.
Advantage: Yankees
Short-Stop:
Anthony Volpe (.310/.459/.345) vs Tommy Edman (.341/.333/.477)
In the regular season, Volpe’s numbers left a lot to be desired as he limped to a .243/.293/.364 slash line with 156 strikeouts. Those have picked up dramatically in the post-season. He’s recorded a hit in all but two of the Yankees games this postseason. While the RBI numbers aren’t there, he has been a reliable option to get on base. What’s more important though is that Volpe is the best fielder in this series. His defense provides so much value at SS that the Dodgers can’t match. No disrespect to Tommy Edman. He has been incredible this postseason, knocking in 12 RBIs while hitting with an .811 OPS. After the unreliability and uncertainty surrounding the SS position for the Dodgers, Edman provided solidity down the stretch. At the end of the day though, he is not the same defender as Volpe and in a best of seven, I would want Volpe.
Advantage: Yankees
Third Base:
Jazz Chisholm (.147/.216/.265) vs Max Muncy (.242/.468/.545)
What a pickup Jazz has been for the Yankees. He was drowning with the lowly Marlins and every facet of his game improved after the trade to the Yankees. He provided even more threat around the Yankees’ Big 2. But he has been absolutely terrible for the postseason, and if the Yankees can’t rely on Jazz to get on base, then their lineup becomes far less scary. Muncy isn’t anywhere near the same athlete as Jazz, but his plate instincts and discipline make his game just as scary. He didn’t play as many games in the regular season this year, but his numbers when he was on the field were still great. Jazz has a high variance that always keeps you on your toes, but Muncy is a more reliable, more solid player.
Advantage: Dodgers
Left Field:
Alex Verdugo (.194/.286/.258) vs Teoscar Hernandez (.200/.340/.350)
Verdugo has always been a solid player. When he was on the Red Sox, he offered some pop off the bat that kept defenses and pitchers honest. Now on the Yanks, that threat has dissipated, and he’s hit closer to that of a role player level. His post-season hasn’t been anything to write home about either. Teo on the other hand has a resurgent season batting cleanup for the Dodgers. He hit 33 HRs, 99 RBIs, and recorded an .840 OPS in addition to winning the HR Derby. A free agent this off season, he has continued to be solid in the playoffs and will certainly have a gaggle of suitors this off-season. He’s not the brightest star in this series, but he will be a difference maker in one way or another.
Advantage: Dodgers
Center Field:
Aaron Judge (.161/.317/.387) vs Kike Hernandez/Andy Pages
58 home runs. 144 RBIS. 1.159 OPS. Need I say more? Although shoutout to Kike for coming up big for the Dodgers with some timely HRs.
Advantage: Yankees
Right Field:
Juan Soto (.333/.439/.667) vs Mookie Betts (.295/.404/.659)
This is the biggest battle of all. Two of the top 10 players in all of baseball, both playing at an extremely high level. There’s no right answer for this debate. Both players have long post-season resumes and have been hitting at an elite level this October. Soto has been immense in his contract year with the Yankees. If it wasn’t for his teammate, there’s a chance he would’ve won the AL MVP. Now consider the fact that he is 26 years old with Ted Williams-like plate discipline. It would take something special to rival that. I present to you Mookie Betts. At 32 years old, he has an MVP, 2 World Series, 6 Gold Gloves, and 6 Silver Sluggers. Pick your poison. For me, I would trust Soto slightly more to get on base in a high leverage situation, and that’s enough to *barely* tip him over the edge.
Advantage: Yankees
Designated Hitter:
Giancarlo Stanton (.294/.385/.794) vs Shohei Ohtani (.286/.434/.500)
Giancarlo is slowly becoming the new Mr. October. He is coming off an MVP performance in the ALCS to the tune of 5 HRs and 11 RBIs in the playoffs. When you talk about high variance, Stanton might be the prototype. If he were on any other team than these two, he’d be the biggest power threat in the lineup. But his counterpart in this series just hit 54 home runs this season. What can I say about Ohtani that hasn’t been said? He’s the MVP even without his pitching, and he’s a top 2 hitter in baseball. So yes, I am picking against a guy who is slugging almost .800.
Advantage: Dodgers
Final Score:
Dodgers: 6 – Yankees: 5
Prediction:
Dodgers in 6
Margin Call Sports 
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