In past years, if you were an okay team in the Western conference, you may have been able to squeeze into the playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed. Even with the expanded post-season, those days are gone. The Western conference is stacked this year with both high-end talent and deep rosters. Though the Celtics won it all last year and come in as the rightful favorite, you could argue that four of the five best teams play west of the Mississippi. Is this the year of the up-and-comers, or will we see the same old faces battling out for the West’s bid in June?

Western Conference Standings:

1. Oklahoma City Thunder – The Thunder responded to their second-round loss to the Mavericks by adding to their already best in the west squad. Bringing in Hartenstein and Caruso while shedding Giddey is a step forward in my eyes (not just because of Giddey’s ongoing battle with NBA Twitter). Not since they had the Durantula have the Thunder fielded a team with both the high-end talent and supporting cast to compete for a championship. Led by an MVP favorite in SGA, Sam Presti’s MyCareer save file should be the top dog come playoff time in the West.

2. Denver Nuggets – By all accounts, the Nuggets suffered some regression last year. Jokic declined as a jump shooter and defensive presence. Jamal Murray suffered injury setbacks while tragedy befell Aaron Gordon and MPJ. Oh, and they also lost Bruce Brown. What ended up happening? They were up 20 in game 7 with a few bad minutes of basketball separating them and the conference finals. While KCP is a painful loss, the Nuggets have a capable replacement in Braun. They will need to rely on the development of guys like Julian Strawther and Payton Watson to step up for them to compete for the 1 seed. While there’s lots of uncertainty surrounding this team, they still have the best player in the world in the midst of a stretch of winning 3 of the last 4 MVPs.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves – Up until about two weeks ago, the Timberwolves were essentially set to run back the same formula as last year. That is, until KAT was shipped out for Julius Randle and Donte Divincenzo. From a talent perspective, the lights are just too bright for Julius Randle in crunch time. He can’t space the floor as well as KAT, and his defensive qualities don’t necessarily fit as well as KAT’s did against quality big men. I still have a lot of questions about this team: How will Naz Reid and NAW perform in elevated roles? What is Rob Dillingham’s fit in this team? But the question that will decide the T-Wolves fate remains: Can Ant continue his superstar trajectory and be a consistent top-5 player in the league? I think he’ll end up just shy of that this year and that keeps the Wolves in 3rd.

4. Dallas Mavericks – Depending on the night, Kyrie and Luka are either the most talent offensive duo in history or the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA. Sometimes they’re both on the same night! I didn’t love the Mavs’s off-season primarily because I think Klay Thompson’s value in this league is now almost exclusively as a catch and shoot threat. This team’s run to the WCF last year was Luka hero-ball supported by better than expected contributions from role players like Josh Green and Dereck Lively. In the regular season, I don’t expect Luka to exert the same amount of effort on a game-in-game-out basis. Without the sweet Slovenian, their team simply doesn’t have the firepower to compete with the top three, which will deflate their regular season win total.

5. Phoenix Suns – When you think about the current look Phoenix Suns, there’s an initial feeling of panic that comes from DBook, Beal, and KD. Following that, there’s not a whole lot going on. They have the top end talent to compete amongst the West’s elite, but I question the defensive flexibility. KD is their best defender from a help standpoint, but they don’t have any elite point of attack, on-ball defenders to throw at opposing ball handlers. It’s hard to bet against a team that has two legitimate top 20 players, but here I am doing so. Without a clear-cut plan for the superstars of other contenders, the Suns are likely to fall into a “best of the rest” category versus other top tier teams.

6. Memphis Grizzlies – How will Ja return from his year long absence? His recent ankle injury gives me pause in ranking the Grizzlies any higher. We saw what this team looked like without Morant. They don’t have a good enough primary ball handler to seriously compete if Ja is out. When he’s firing, this team can beat anyone. JJJ and Bane are top 50 NBA players albeit with some flaws, but if you’re operating with them as your 2/3 punch, then there’s definitely deep playoff run potential.

7. Sacramento Kings – The Kings are like that mosquito bite on your ankle. You don’t know how it got there. You don’t really notice it all the time. But when you do notice it, it becomes such a pain. Sabonis (regular season) is a double-double monster. Fox is one the clutchest players in the league, and guys like Keegan Murray and Malik Monk are the textbook definition of solid. Now with Demar Derozan, the offensive potential for this team opens up even more. But their off-season improvement doesn’t push the ceiling of this team high enough to consider them a real threat to the top of the West.

8. New Orleans Pelicans – If you looked at this team on paper, you’d probably have them higher on this list. Zion has the potential to break out into an all NBA player this year. Adding Dejounte Murray just adds further firepower to a team that seemingly has quality at every position. Herb Jones might be the best perimeter defender in the league and you know what you’re getting from guys like BI, CJ Mccollum, and Alvarado. I don’t love their bench options from an offensive perspective beyond Trey Murphy, and I anticipate this as the year where BI gets dealt. In the East, this is probably a top 5 seed, but to compete in the West you need a 1A guy who can get it done when all else is going wrong. I think Zion can be that guy but he needs to 1) be healthy and 2) prove it when it matters.

9. Los Angeles Lakers – My glorious King returns for year 21! Award them the championship already! The Lakers are probably the most volatile team in the league. On any given night, they can have two of the ten best players in the league. At the same time, they can also have the worst 3-11 rosters in the league. As sensational as LeGOAT is, he won’t be around forever. The Lakers need to find a way to maximize their peripheral talent, utilize AD’s offensive skill set consistently, and avoid any drama surrounding their coach. For me, there’s too many storylines surrounding this team to reach its full potential which will lead to another year in the play-in! Hurrah!

10. Houston Rockets – The Rockets are the highest ranked team on this list that I feel like does not have a top 25 player in the NBA (holy talent). But in spite of that, I think this is the year that they make the jump back to playing meaningful basketball. This is a developmental pick, no doubt. But one that I’m willing to make on the basis of what I’ve seen from guys like Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., and Alperen Sengun. Then again, a playoff miss is entirely possible if these guys don’t, but if I were a betting man (see the word “IF” NCAA officials), then I’m parlaying Alpie as an all-star with the Rockets in the play-in.

11. Los Angeles Clippers – I actually like the Clippers rotation. They exchanged one of their superstars for defensive solidity and versatility with DJJ, Batum, and Dunn. They also maintained their elite individual scoring power through Harden and Kawhi. However, the Clippers feel like they operate in constant compliance with Murphy’s Law. Especially with Kawhi’s recent injury setback, a great share of the offensive load will be placed on Harden. The days of MVP Harden are gone and the team around him isn’t good enough to make up for that loss in his elite ceiling. If Kawhi comes back strong then this may prove to be a foolish prediction, but I just can’t see it if Leonard does end up missing significant time.

12. Golden State Warriors – Steph, I’m sorry because I know you’re reading this and you’re disappointed. I’m disappointed for you and in the organization. After being linked to almost every player in the trade market this off-season, the Warriors failed to acquire a secondary star. They replaced Klay with Buddy Hield, Slo-Mo, and De’Anthony Melton. That’s definitely a step up in terms of flexibility and athleticism. But who is going to score when Steph isn’t on the court? Draymond and Kuminga are the 2/3 guys on this team, but I don’t trust either of them as a secondary scoring option. Kuminga particularly has a huge role this year. Steph is going to perform regardless. Whether or not the team is in a place to compete come April will depend on how reliable Kuminga is as a scoring option.

13. San Antonio Spurs – How many teams have ever had a guy that’s the preseason favorite to win DPOY and MIP? Okay, now how many of those teams missed the playoffs? Clearly, I think Wemby is special. But the Spurs were BAD last year, especially at the beginning. I expect this to be a big developmental year for the Spurs. One where they can throw things at the wall and see what sticks. I’m excited to see how Stephon Castle fits in as well as Jeremy Sochan’s year 3. But these experiments, along with CP3’s addition, seems more likely to provide good entertainment than consistent winning. The Spurs were a bottom 5-10 offense by every metric last season. This will likely improve somewhat by virtue of their top-end talent, but it’s just not enough to cut it in the West.

14. Utah Jazz – I like the Jazz. They were the subject of La La Land, a movie I hold near and dear to my heart. For this season though, I don’t know if there’s any game they play in that makes me want to tune in as a neutral observer. The Jazz feel stuck to me, and it appeared that they were looking for a way out by surveying the market on Lauri Markkanen. He ended up signing a mammoth extension though which keeps the status quo. I see this season as an opportunity for guys like Walker Kessler, Kyle Filipkowski, and Keyonte George to develop for future runs. The bottom line is that entering the season with this roster seems like an admission of mediocrity in a West filled with stars. It’s like casting a HS actor to play alongside Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone. They’ll probably be alright, but only peanuts compared to the main stars.

15. Portland Trail Blazers – This team could go down in history as the best team to ever be the 15th seed. Deandre Ayton, Scoot Henderson, Jerami Grant, and Anfernee Simons are all high-level NBA players. Some of those guys might even crack the bench rotation in Boston. In all seriousness, this team has solid vets with volatile youngsters, but it feels more like a collection of individuals rather than a unified group. In a conference where the potential 14th seed has a literal alien on their team, you can’t afford to have disharmony. While it could be a disappointing year for the Blazers, there is hope in knowing that the West can’t be this stacked forever, right?